Here is the essence of the 2021 Provisional Economic Budget (BEP) published Thursday by the High Commission for Planning (HCP):
1. Prospects for the national economy in 2021: – The gross domestic product (GDP) should register a growth of 4.6% in 2021 after a recession of 7% in 2020. In value, the GDP should register an increase of 5%. , 8%. – The labor market should see a slight drop in the unemployment rate, which would be 11.1% in 2021 instead of 12.8% a year earlier.
– Domestic demand should register an increase of 5% after its decline of 6.7% in 2020, with a positive contribution of 5.4 points to economic growth instead of a negative contribution of 7.3 points in 2020.
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– Exports of goods and services in volume are expected to post a net growth of 7.6% compared to their decline in 2020, and imports of goods and services are expected to improve by 8% instead of their sharp decline of 12 , 2% in 2020. Thus, net external demand should make a negative contribution of 0.7 point, ie a deterioration of one point compared to its contribution in 2020.
– The budget deficit should see a reduction of nearly one point to reach 6.4% of GDP, after 7.4% estimated for the year 2020.
– The share of the treasury debt should increase by nearly 0.6 point as a percentage of GDP to reach 78.3% of GDP instead of 77.7% of GDP in 2020 and 64.9% in 2019. Taking into account the guaranteed external debt, the overall public debt ratio should stand at 95.6% of GDP after 94.6% in 2020. – The money market is likely to be marked by continued tensions on bank liquidity needs in 2021, which should increase to nearly 85.2 billion dirhams (billion dirhams), after 65.3 billion dirhams in 2020.
– Bank loans should increase at a rate of 4% in 2021, under the effect of the expected recovery in economic activities and the expected impact of household support and business recovery programs. 2. Economic situation in 2020:
– Deep national economic recession in 2020, following the effects of covid-19 and the succession of two dry agricultural seasons. Indeed, the national economic growth would have experienced a recession of 7% in 2020 instead of the growth of 2.5% recorded in 2019.
– Domestic demand would have decreased by 6.7% in volume, instead of an increase of 1.7% in 2019. Its contribution to growth would have been negative for the first time since 1997 by -7.3 points, at instead of a positive contribution of 1.9 points in 2019.
– Exports of goods and services in volume would have recorded a drop of 14.1% compared to an increase of 5.8% in 2019. Similarly, imports would have posted a decline of 12.2% instead of an increase of 3.4% posted in 2019. To this end, net external demand would again have made a positive contribution to GDP growth of 0.3 point, down from +0.6 point recorded in 2019. – The budget deficit would have widened in 2020 to reach nearly 7.4% of GDP, instead of 3.6% in 2019. This financing requirement would have largely exceeded the annual average of the deficits recorded between 2012-2019, i.e. 4.5% of GDP and would have been much higher than the forecasts of the finance law for the year 2020. – Overall public debt would have increased to reach 94.6% of GDP in 2020, an increase of almost 14 , 2 points compared to the ratio of 80.4% recorded in 2019.
– Money supply would have rebounded by nearly 7.7%, up sharply from 3.8% recorded in 2019 and 4.2% between 2012 and 2018.
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